The forecast for USDA’s broiler production for 2013 was increased again this month and is now expected to be 36.901 billion pounds, 495 million pounds above the department’s estimate last month, and 0.7 percent more than the slightly revised upward estimate of 36.640 billion pounds for 2012, according to the “World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates” report released today from the World Agricultural Outlook Board. USDA’s current broiler production estimate for 2012 at 36.640 billion pounds is 0.4 percent below the 36.803 billion pounds in 2011. Increased broiler production is likely USDA said because hatchery data point to continued expansion and slaughter weights have been increasing.
USDA’s forecasts for broiler exports for 2012 and 2013 were both raised from the January 2013 report with 2012 exports now put at 7.270 billion pounds and 2013 exports at 7.250 billion pounds. While 2013 exports are little changed from 2012, last year’s exports were 4.3 percent higher than 2011.
USDA analysts forecast the expected 12-city wholesale average price for whole broilers for 2013 to be between 92-98 cents per pound compared with 90-96 cents per pound last month. For 2012, USDA reported a whole broiler price of 86.6 cents per pound, the same as its January report and 6.7 cents above the 79.9 cents per pound in 2011. Broiler prices were raised for this year “on expected demand strength,” the report noted.
The forecast from USDA’s Outlook Board for beef production for 2013 was increased from last month’s report. For 2013, beef production is now likely to be 25.191 billion pounds, 290 million pounds more than last month’s estimate and 3.1 percent less than the slightly revised 26.009 billion pounds in 2012. With the 2012 beef production estimate now forecast at 26.009 billion pounds, it is little changed from the January report and represents a 1.1 percent decrease from the 26.292 billion pounds in 2011.
The forecast for pork production for 2012 and 2013 were both raised, albeit modestly, from last month’s outlook. Pork production for 2012 is now put at 23.268 billion pounds, 3 million pounds more than the January report and 2.2 percent more than the 22.775 billion pounds in 2011. Estimated pork production for 2013 was increased by 140 million pounds from last month’s report to 23.442 billion pounds, which is 0.8 percent more than the expected 2012 production.
Total red meat and poultry production for 2012 was again adjusted upward from the previous month’s estimate. Combined meat and poultry for last year is estimated at 92.610 billion pounds, 75 million pounds more than the January estimate and 0.2 percent higher than the 92.397 billion pounds in 2011. For 2013, the Board now expects poultry and meat production combined to be 92.272 billion pounds, 946 billion pounds more than the month earlier report but 0.4 percent less than the 92.610 billion pounds in 2012.
The Outlook Board said that heavier beef carcass weights are continuing to add to beef production. Also, cow slaughter during first quarter 2013 is expected to be relatively high. Contributing to more pork production this year is also heavier average hog carcass weights reflecting more moderate feed costs.
