USDA’s broiler production forecast for next year continued at 36.055 billion pounds, the same as the department’s last month estimate, and is 1.3 percent less than the slightly revised upward production level of 36.544 billion pounds for 2012, according to the “World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates” report this week from the World Agricultural Outlook Board. The current broiler production estimate for 2012 at 36.544 billion pounds is 0.7 percent below the 36.803 billion pounds in 2011.
USDA’s forecast for broiler exports for 2012 and 2013 remained unchanged from the month earlier report with 7.195 billion pounds and 7.050 billion pounds for this year and next year, respectively. USDA analysts forecast the expected 12-city wholesale average price for whole broilers for 2013 to be 88-94 cents per pound compared with 85-92 cents per pound last month. For 2012, USDA now sees 86.8 cents per pound, 1.6 cents per pound higher than the November report and compares with 79.0 cents per pound in 2011. Broiler prices were raised for both 2012 and 2013 “as demand has been firm,” the report noted.
USDA’s Outlook Board’s forecasts for beef production for 2012 and 2013 were both increased slightly from last month’s report. For 2012, beef production is now likely to be 25.968 billion pounds, 285 million pounds more than last month’s estimate and 1.2 percent less than the 26.292 billion pounds in 2011. For 2013, beef production is forecast to be 24.681 billion pounds, 65 million pounds more than the November forecast and 5.0 percent under this year’s expected production.
Pork production forecasts for 2012 and 2013 were both reduced from last month’s outlook. Pork production this year is put at 23.195 billion pounds, 80 million pounds less than the November report and 1.8 percent more than the 22.775 billion pounds in 2011. Pork production next year was reduced by 165 million pounds from the November report to 22.792 billion pounds, which is 1.7 percent less than the expected 2012 production.
Total red meat and poultry production for 2012 was again adjusted upward from the previous month’s estimate. Combined meat and poultry for this year is estimated at 92.419 billion pounds, 262 million pounds more than seen in November and essentially unchanged than the 92.397 billion pounds in 2011. For 2013, the Board now expects 90.037 billion pounds, 100 million pounds less than the month earlier report and 2.6 percent less than the 92.419 billion pounds in 2012.
Commenting on the livestock and poultry outlook, the board noted that broiler production data to date prompted the slight boost in this year’s output estimate. For beef, both fed and non-fed cattle, slaughter is likely to be higher than earlier seen and carcass weights were raised to reflect ongoing data. Contributing to less pork production next year will be slightly lower average hog weights during first-half 2013 and first quarter slaughter is likely to be slightly lower.
