USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report released yesterday put 2012-2013 early corn stocks at 619 million bushels. “Corn ending stocks levels are historically tight, virtually pipeline,” said Greg Wagner, president of GWX Ag Advisors, told AgWeb.com. The 619 million bushels represent 5.6 percent of total corn usage of 11.150 billion bushels for 2012-13.
USDA reduced its corn production estimate slightly to 10.706 billion bushels from September’s 10.727 billion bushels. USDA also lowered its average yield forecast per acre from September’s 122.8 bushels per acre to 122.0 bushels per acre for October.
USDA sees the average farm price for corn at $7.10-$8.50 per bushel for 2012-13, 10 cents less on both ends of the month-earlier price range. For 2011-12, the comparable corn price was $6.22 per bushel, and for 2010-11, the average farm prices was $5.18 per bushel.
USDA left feed use for corn unchanged at 5.85 billion bushels and decreased projected corn exports only slightly, from 1.25 billion bushels in September to 1.15 billion bushels in yesterday’s report. “Demand will help support the corn market,” says Randy Martinson, manager of Progressive Ag Marketing. “The 2012 growing season is not without precedence, but it certainly is one for the ages”, said Wagner. Wagner told AgWeb.com that USDA’s original estimate for U.S. average corn yield was 166 bushels per acre, and the December corn futures contract was trading below $5 per bushel. Since then, the December contract has soared to a high close near $8.40 per bushel and subsequently retraced to the mid $7 range.
USDA’s forecast for soybean production is now 2.86 billion bushels, up 9 pecent from September’s estimate, but 8 percent lower than last year’s output. USDA increased it U.S. average soybean yield estimate by 2.5 bushels per acre to 37.8 bushels per acre, which is 4.1 bushels lower than last year.
“We were predicting disaster three months ago, but we had pretty good moisture in August,” says Jerrod Kitt, with the Linn Group. “Our initial estimate for the soybean yield is 38 bushels per acres, Kitt told AgWeb.com.
According to USDA’s “Crop Production” report, also released yesterday yield forecasts for soybeans were higher or unchanged in all of the top soybean states. USDA also increased it harvested acreage estimate for soybeans to 75.7 million acres, a 17-percent increase from September’s forecast.
Ending stocks for soybeans are estimated at 130 million bushels up 15 million bushels from September’s estimate.
