USDA’s broiler production forecast for next year was raised slightly and is now expected to be 36.025 billion pounds, 59 million pounds more than USDA’s September estimate and 0.8 percent below the revised downward level of 36.324 billion pounds for 2012, according to the “World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates” report this week from the World Agricultural Outlook Board.
The current production estimates for 2012 is 1.3 percent below the 36.803 billion pounds in 2011. When USDA made its first forecast for 2013 broiler production in May this year, the board put output at 37.099 billion pounds, 2.5 percent ahead of the estimated production for 2012 at that time.
Broiler exports for 2012 and 2013 continue (August, September, October) to be forecast at 7.078 billion pounds and 6.950 billion pounds for this year and next year, respectively. Analysts raised the expected 12-city wholesale average price for whole broilers for 2013 to be 85-91 cents per pound compared with 84-92 cents per pound last month. For 2012, USDA sees 84.2 cents per pound compared with 79.0 cents per pound in 2011.
Beef production for 2012 and 2013 were both trimmed from last month’s report. For 2012, beef production is now likely to be 25.689 billion pounds, 190 million pounds less than last month’s estimate and 2.3 percent less than the 26.292 billion pounds in 2011. For 2013, beef production could be 24.726 billion pounds, 40 million pounds less than the September forecast and 3.7 percent under this year’s production.
Pork production for 2012 and 2013 is seen increasing from last month’s outlook. Pork production this year is put at 23.314 billion pounds, 90 million pounds more than the September report and 2.4 percent more than the 22.775 billion pounds in 2011. Pork production next year was increased by 95 million pounds from the September report to 23.017 billion pounds, which is 1.3 percent less than the expected 2012 production.
Total red meat and poultry production for 2012 was adjusted down from last month. Combined meat and poultry for this year is estimated at 92.042, 132 million pounds less than seen in September and 0.4 percent under the 92.397 billion pounds in 2011. For 2013, the board now expects 90.289 billion pounds, 135 million pounds more than the month earlier report and 1.9 percent less than the 92.042 billion pounds in 2012.
