USDA’s broiler production forecast for next year was further trimmed and is now expected to be 35.966 billion pounds, 143 million pounds less than USDA’s August estimate and 1.1 percent below the revised downward level of 36.374 billion pounds for 2012, according to the “World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates” report this week from the World Agricultural Outlook Board.
The current production estimates for 2012 is 1.2 percent above the 36.803 billion pounds in 2011. When USDA made its first forecast for 2013 broiler production in May this year, the board put output at 37.099 billion pounds, 2.5 percent ahead of the estimated production for 2012 at that time. The board reduced its broiler production forecasts for 2013 in July, August, and now again in September.
Broiler exports for 2012 and 2013 continue to be forecast at 7.078 billion pounds and 6.950 billion pounds for this year and next year, respectively. Analysts raised the expected 12-city wholesale average price for whole broilers for 2013 by two cents on the high end of the price range. They now see the price for 2013 between 84 to 92 cents per pound compared with 83 to 85 cents per pound for 2012.
Beef production for 2012 and 2013 were both raised from last month’s report. For 2012, beef production is now likely to be 25.879 billion pounds, 200 million pounds more than last month’s estimate but 1.6 percent less than the 26.292 billion pounds in 2011. For 2013, beef production could be 24.766 billion pounds, 95 million pounds more than the August forecast but 4.3 percent under this year’s production.
Pork production, on the other hand, is seen slipping from last month’s outlook. Pork production this year is put at 23.224 billion pounds, 25 million pounds less than the August report but 2.0 percent more than the 22.775 billion pounds in 2011. Pork production next year was trimmed by 40 million pounds from the August report to 22.922 billion pounds, which is 1.3 percent less than the expected 2012 production.
Total red meat and poultry production for 2012 and 2013 were adjusted down from last month. Combined meat and poultry for this year is estimated at 92.179, 20 million pounds less than seen in August and 0.2 percent under the 92.397 billion pounds in 2011. For 2013, the board now expects 90.154 billion pounds, 99 million pounds lower than the month earlier report and 2.2 percent less than the 92.174 billion pounds in 2012.
USDA said that total red meat-poultry production was reduced from last month as lower expected pork and poultry production more than offsets a higher beef production forecast. Beef production was raised in 2012 as higher fed beef and cow slaughter was forecast. The 2013 forecast was raised as higher forecast placements in second-half 2012 will result in larger fed cattle supplies in the first part of 2013. The pork production forecast for 2012 was reduced due to a slightly slower expected pace of slaughter in the third quarter and slightly lower carcass weights in the second half of the year. Pork production was reduced for 2013 as carcass weights are tempered. Broiler production was reduced in both 2012 and 2013 as producer returns are expected to be pressured by higher soybean meal prices, the report noted.
