USDA’s first survey-based corn crop estimate for this year put the corn harvest at 10.779 billion bushels and the soybean harvest at 2.692 billion bushels, confirming the significant impact of this summer’s drought on these crops, according to the Department’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate report.  This year’s corn crop would be the smallest since 2006 and the national average yield would be the lowest since 1995 at 124.3 bushels per acre.  Harvested area were cut by 1.49 million acres from the June Acreage Report to 87.361 million acres or 90.6 percent of planted acres, which is higher than private estimates.  The ending inventory of corn for 2012/13 was forecast at 650 million bushels, 5.8 percent of total corn usage.  The farm gate corn price for 2012/13 is expected to average between $7.50-$8.90 per bushel, up significantly from last month’s forecast of $5.40-$6.40 per bushel and $6.20-$6.30 per bushel from 2011/12.  If the corn price does average $8.90 for the coming crop year it would be over 40 percent higher than during 2011/12.

With respect to changes from last month’s report in the usage of corn for 2012/13, USDA increased imports to 75 million bushels compared with 30 million bushels, decreased feed and residual to 4.075 billion bushels compared with 4.800 billion bushels, reduced corn for ethanol to 4.500 billion bushels from 4.900 billion bushels, lowered exports to 9.925 billion bushels from 11.120 billion bushels, ending stock down at 650 million bushels compared with 1.183 billion bushels.  On a percentage decrease basis, feed and residual is down 15.1 percent, exports 10.7 percent, and corn for ethanol 8.2 percent.

In today’s report, USDA put the soybean crop for 2012 at 2.692 billion bushels with an average yield of 36.1 bushels per acre and 74.6 million acres harvested.  This year’s soybean harvest would be 11.9 percent under the 3.056 billion bushels produced last year.  Carryover stocks for 2012/13 for soybeans is seen at 115 million bushels or 4.2 percent of total soybean usage.  The soybean farm price for 2012/13 is expected to be between $15.00-$17.00 per bushel compared with last month’s usage of $13.00-$15.00 per bushel and $12.45 per bushel estimated for 2011/12.

 

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