Eleven analysts polled by Reuters News Service this week reported an average estimate of 11.45 billion bushels for corn production this fall, 23 percent under USDA’s initial forecast in May 2012 of 14.79 billion bushels. The consensus of the 11 analysts for average corn yield was 130.8 bushels per acre, the lowest in 10 years and down 4.7 percent from the Reuters poll last week. The analysts’ consensus of corn production this week is almost 12 percent lower than the current USDA estimate.
The poll estimated the U.S. soybean yield at 38.6 bushels per acre, down 1 percent from a week ago. Soybean production at 2.899 billion bushels also was down 1 percent from last week’s poll and 5 percent below USDA’s forecast.
“Monday’s crop ratings showed losses on par with the damage seen during the 1988 drought if these conditions persist,” Bryce Knorr, senior editor for Farm Futures Magazine, told Reuters. “Weather so far has taken almost four billion bushels off the corn crop, so a lot of demand must still be rationed,” Knorr added. “We are at 129.1 bushels per acre and with a one-million-acre decrease in harvested acres, we have production at 11.342 billion bushels,” said Rich Nelson, director of research for Allendale Inc. “We have corn-harvested acres at 87 million, 1.9 million below the government, and we took soybean harvested acres down 1 million,” said Don Roose, president and analyst for U.S. Commodities.
Much of the corn crop has been harmed beyond repair, but there is still time for soybeans to improve and turn in some respectable yields, analysts told Reuters. “Timely rains over the next five to seven days will help each crop in Iowa and Minnesota. It’s too late to help the corn crop in Ohio and Indiana, but the soybeans will be helped by rains,” said Sterling Smith, analyst for Citigroup.
