High feed costs will likely dampen the rate of increase in broiler production next year, but, at the same time, strong world demand will support an increased level of broiler exports in 2013, according to USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report this week from the Department’s World Agricultural Outlook Board.  Broiler production in the coming year is now seen at 36.703 billion pounds, 396 million pounds less than last month’s forecast and 0.6 percent ahead of the 36.495 billion pounds estimated for this year.  The Board left its 2012 broiler forecast unchanged from the previous month’s report.  If the 36.495 billion pounds proves correct, this year’s production would be 0.8 percent under the 36.803 billion pounds in 2011.

Broiler exports for 2013 are now expected to increase to 7.125 billion pounds, 150 million pounds above the June forecast and 0.2 percent under the 2012 estimate.  Exports for this year were raised from last month’s estimate by 100 million pounds to 7.137 billion pounds.  This quantity would be 2.1 percent ahead of the 6.991 billion pounds in 2011.

Wholesale broiler prices for 2012 and 2013 were revised lower for this year but moved upward for next year in this month’s report.  For this year, analysts now expect the wholesale broiler price, 12-city average, to be between 84-86 cents per pound compared with the June estimate of 85-88 cents per pound.  For 2013, one cent on each end of the price range was added.  That is, next year the wholesale broiler price could average between 83-90 cents per pound compared with 82-89 cents per pound in last month’s report.

For beef production next year the Board forecasts 24.656 billion pounds, 15 million pounds less than last month and 2.4 percent under the 25.274 billion pounds of beef now expected for 2012.  This year’s beef production was upped 90 million pounds from the June estimate.  Beef production this year could be off 3.9 percent from the 26.292 billion pounds in 2011.

Pork production for both this year and next year is likely to slip from last month’s outlook.  In 2013 pork production is now seen at 23.697 billion pounds, 175 million pounds less than last month’s forecast and 1.6 percent above this year’s level.  For 2012, the Board trimmed 70 million pounds off in its June estimate.  The 23.315 billion pounds of pork estimated for this year could be 2.4 percent over the 22.775 billion in 2011.

Total meat production for 2013 is forecast at 91.703 billion pounds, 685 million pounds less than last month and 0.1 percent less than the 91.785 billion pounds expected this year.  The Board’s estimate for 2012 total meat production is little changed from its previous monthly estimate and would be 0.7 percent under the 92.397 billion pounds in 2011.

The Board explained its changes for meat and poultry by noting higher feed prices will slow the pace of poultry and meat expansion and temper growth in weights.  Deteriorating pasture conditions will result in increased cattle placement in feedlots, especially lighter weights.

 

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