Broiler production next year is forecast to be 37.099 billion pounds, unchanged from the month earlier report, and 1.1 percent above the upwardly revised 36.495 billion pounds for 2012, according to USDA’s “World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates” (WASDE) report this week.  USDA raised its estimate for this year’s broiler production by 298 million pounds, which would be 0.8 percent under the 36.803 billion pounds produced in 2011.  Hatchery data are pointing towards smaller declines in eggs set and heavier bird weight as the reasons to add to this year’s production outlook.

Broiler exports for 2013 were unchanged at 6.975 billion pounds, 0.8 percent less than the revised 7.037 billion pounds for 2012.  Analysts increased this year’s broiler exports by 12 million pounds, which could be 0.7 percent above the 6.991 billion pounds in 2011.  For 2012, USDA’s 12-city average wholesale price for whole broilers is seen at 85-88 cents per pound, 1 cent less on both ends of the range that USDA  forecast last month.  For 2013 the comparable price is forecast at 82-89 cents per pound, unchanged from the May report.

Commenting on broiler forecasts in this week’s WASDE report, yesterday’s “Daily Livestock Report” noted that for broiler production this year to get closer to production last year will require a major reversal of year-on-year broiler output, which stood at 5.2 percent smaller than 2011 levels as of June 2, the report said.  “We noted last week that we expect the year-on-year comparisons for egg sets to swing to the positive side of the ledger in the next few weeks, setting the stage for the same swing in broiler production 8-10 weeks later.  Higher broiler output could begin to occur sometime in August.  The question remains whether the shift can take us from -5.2 percent in early June to -0.8 percent by the end of the year,”  the report said.

 

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