Corn production for 2012-2013 is projected at a record 14.8 billion bushels, up 2.4 billion bushels from 2011-2012, according to USDA’s “World Agricultural Demand and Supply Estimates” issued by USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board yesterday. A projected 5.1-million-acre increase in harvested area and higher expected yields, compared with 2011-2012, sharply boost production prospects, the report indicated.

This fall’s corn yield is projected at a record 166.0 bushels per acre, 2.0 bushels above the 1990-2010 trend reflecting the rapid pace of planting and emergence. Despite the lowest expected carry-in in 16 years, total corn supplies for 2012-13 are projected at a record 15.7 billion bushels, up 2.2 billion bushels from 2011-2012.

Total U.S. corn use for 2012-13 is projected up 9 percent from 2011-12 on higher feed and residual disappearance, increased use for sweeteners and starch, and larger exports. Feed and residual use for 2012-13 is projected up 900 million bushels reflecting a sharp rebound in residual disappearance with the record crop and an increase in feeding with lower corn prices.

Projected corn use for ethanol is unchanged from the board’s report a month earlier as weak gasoline consumption limits domestic blending opportunities. Corn exports for 2012-13 are projected 200 million bushels higher than in 2011-12 with abundant domestic supplies, lower prices, and higher expected China demand.  U.S. corn ending stocks for 2012-13 are projected at 1.9 billion bushels, up 1.0 billion bushels from the current year projection.  The season-average farm price is projected at $4.20 to $5.00 per bushel, down sharply from the 2011-12 record projected at $5.95 to $6.25 per bushel. Projected corn ending stocks for 2011-12 are raised 50 million bushels to 851 million bushels with lower expected June-August feed and residual disappearance, the report noted.

Soybean production is projected at 3.205 billion bushels, up from the 2011 crop as higher yields more than offset lower harvested area. Harvested area is projected at 73.0 million acres based on a 5-year average harvested-to-planted ratio and planted area of 73.9 million acres. Soybean yields are projected at 43.9 bushels per acre, up 2.4 bushels from 2011. With beginning stocks projected at 210 million bushels, 2012-13 soybean supplies are projected at 3.43 billion bushels, up 4 percent from 2011-12.  Soybean crushings for 2012-13 are projected at 1.655 billion bushels, almost unchanged from 2011-12 as a lower extraction rate offsets reduced total soybean meal use. Total soybean meal use is projected down 1 percent as reduced exports are only partly offset by gains in domestic use.

With increased 2012-13 U.S. soybean supplies and sharply lower South American soybean supplies on hand this fall, U.S. soybean exports are projected at 1.505 billion bushels, up 190 million bushels from 2011-12. Ending stocks for 2012-13 are projected at 145 million bushels, down 65 million bushels from 2011-12, leaving the stocks-to-use ratio at a historically low 4.4 percent.  The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2012-13 is projected at $12.00 to $14.00 per bushel compared with $12.35 per bushel in 2011-12. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $335 to $365 per short ton, compared with $360 per ton for 2011-12.

 

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