Higher feed prices will put “additional pressure” on the expected increase in broiler production in 2012, and thus slow the expected recovery of the broiler industry according to USDA’s “World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates” released yesterday from the World Agricultural Outlook Board. Elevated feed costs also caused analysts to trim their estimate for broiler production this year. For 2011, the outlook board now expects 36.991 billion pounds, 22 million less than last month’s estimate and 1.3 percent above the 36.516 billion pounds in 2010. The 2012 forecast for broiler production is 37.633 billion pounds, 99 million pounds less than the May forecast and 1.7 percent higher than the revised estimate for 2011.
Beef production in 2011 may be slightly more than what was forecast last month as the drought in the Southern Plains is forcing more feedlot placements, and cow slaughter continues to run larger than previously thought. Pork production estimates for 2011 and 2012 were trimmed slightly from last month. Combined red meat and poultry for 2011 is now seen at 92.447 billion pounds, 13 million pounds more than last month and 0.7 percent greater than the 91.772 billion pounds in 2010. Combined production of red meat and poultry for 2012 will likely total 92.186 billion pounds, 254 million pounds below last month’s forecast and 0.3 percent under the revised expected output for 2011.
Estimated broiler exports for 2011 were increased by 80 million pounds from the May estimate and exports are now expected to be 6.480 billion pounds, 4.3 percent less than the 6.773 billion pounds in 2010. Broiler exports for 2012 continue to be forecast at 6.700 billion pounds, 3.4 percent more than the revised estimate for 2011. Despite the trimming of its broiler production outlook, the board tightened its 2011 wholesale 12-city average broiler price to 82-85 cents per pound compared with last month’s range of 82-86 cents per pound. Similarly, analysts forecast the comparable broiler price for 2012 to average between 82 to 88 cents per pound, 1 cent lower on each end of the price range then the forecast for 2012 released last month.
