The forecast for 2018 total red meat and poultry production is lowered from last month as lower beef, pork, and turkey production more than offsets higher broiler production, according to USDA’s November 8 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, available here https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde1118.pdf.
Beef production is reduced from the previous month on a slower expected marketing pace for fed cattle in the fourth quarter. The pork production forecast is reduced on lower expected fourth-quarter hog slaughter and lighter carcass weights. The broiler production forecast is raised as higher reporter third-quarter slaughter more than offsets small declines in fourth-quarter production. The turkey production forecast is reduced on third-quarter slaughter data; no change is made to the outlying quarter.
This month’s 2018/19 U.S. corn outlook is for lower production, reduced feed and residual use and exports, and smaller ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 14.626 billion bushels, down 152 million from last month on a reduced yield forecast. Feed and residual use is lowered 50 million bushels based on a smaller crop and higher prices. Exports are reduced 25 million bushels based on expectations of increased competition from Ukraine. With supply falling more than use, corn ending stocks are down 77 million bushels from last month. The season-average corn price received by producers is raised 10 cents to a midpoint of $3.60 per bushel.
The U.S. soybean outlook is for lower production, reduced exports, and increased ending stocks. Soybean production is forecast at 4,600 million bushels, down 90 million on lower yields. The soybean yield is project at 52.1 bushels per acre, down 1.0 bushel mainly on reductions for Iowa and Illinois. Soybean exports are reduced 160 million bushels to 1,900 million with lower imports projected for China.
The forecast protein consumption growth rate for China is reduced, which is reflected in the limited number of U.S. export sales this fall. Although sales to China are minimal, strong sales to other markets are expected to continue, which is likely to result in a larger share of U.S. exports in the second half of the marketing year. With lower exports and slightly higher crush, soybean ending stocks are projected at 955 million bushels, up 70 million.
