The forecasts for 2018 red meat and poultry production are raised from last month, according to USDA’s latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.
Second and third-quarter broiler production is raised on recent hatchery data and expected heavier bird weights. The beef production forecast is raised on higher expected cow slaughter in the third quarter. Turkey production is raised slightly on production data to date. Egg production is raised from the previous month as egg prices are forecast higher and feed costs lower,
For 2019, the red meat and poultry production forecast is raised as increases in pork and broiler production more than offsets expected declines in beef production. Forecast beef production is reduced from the previous month on lower expected steer and heifer slaughter the first half of the year.
The pork production forecast is raised; the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report indicated that producers intend to farrow 2 percent more hogs over the next two quarters, which coupled with expected growth in pigs per litter will push first-half hog slaughter higher.
Forecast broiler and egg production is also raised from the previous month, as higher prices and lower expected feed prices support continued expansion. Forecast turkey production is unchanged from the previous month.
The beef import forecast is unchanged for 2018, but the export forecast is raised from the previous month on recent trade data and continued strong exports to Asia. The 2019 beef export forecast is also raised from last month.
Pork trade forecasts for 2018 and 2019 are unchanged from the previous month. Lower pork product prices are expected to help offset increased competition in key markets in 2019.
No change is made to 2018 and 2019 broiler and turkey export forecasts. The 2018 egg export forecast is raised on recent trade data, but no change is made to the outlying quarters. Small revisions are made to historical trade estimates.
The cattle price forecast for 2018 is lowered slightly from last month, reflecting June price data. Forecast 2019 cattle prices are unchanged from the previous month. The hog price forecast is raised for 2018 as recent price strength and expected higher prices in the third quarter more than offset lower prices in the fourth quarter. The hog price forecast for 2019 is lowered on increased supplies of pork.
Broiler prices are raised for 2018 on current price strength while turkey prices are unchanged. No changes are made for 2019 broiler and turkey price forecasts. Egg prices are raised for 2018 on higher-than-expected prices to date. The 2019 egg price is reduced slightly on increased supplies.
