USDA’s latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report gave grain markets some semi-bullish news, increasing corn and soybean prices moderately higher soon after the report was released. The report is available here https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf.
The 2018-2019 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, crush, exports, and lower ending stocks compared to 2017-2018. The soybean crop is projected at 4,280 million bushels down 112 million from last year’s record crop on lower harvested area and trend yields. With higher beginning stocks, soybean supplies are projected at 4,835 million bushels, up 2 percent from 2017-2018. Total U.S. oilseed projection for 2018-2019 is forecast at 127.3 million tons, down 3.7 million from 2017-2018 mainly on lower soybean production.
The U.S. feed-grain outlook for 2018-2019 is for lower production, domestic use, exports and ending stocks. USDA forecasts the 2018 corn crop at 14.0 billion bushels, which is down from a year ago based on lower forecasted acreage and yield. The yield projection of 174.0 bushes per acre is based on a weather-adjusted trend assuming normal planting progress and summer growing season. That number is slightly below the yield trend line and is based on some weather-adjusted factors such as a slightly slower-than-normal planting to start the season. With beginning stocks down from a year ago, total corn supplies at 16.3 billion bushels, if realized would be down 675 million from the prior year.
Total U.S. corn use in 2018-2019 is forecast to decline modestly from a year ago on reductions in domestic use and exports. Food, seed and industrial use is projected to rise 75 million bushels to 7.1 billion, driven by an expected increase in the amount of corn used to produce ethanol for fuel.
