The latest available U.S. trade data shows first-half exports of animal products year-over-year higher across the board. An increase in global demand and a decline in the U.S. dollar likely contributed to favorable conditions for exports. The value of the U.S. dollar has fallen 5.9 percent since December as measured by the Price-Adjusted Broad Dollar Monthly Index reported by the U.S. Federal Reserve. With the exception of U.S. exports of beef and veal, the largest share of which went to Japan, Mexico accounted for the largest share of U.S. animal product exports. The figure depicts year-over-year growth of U.S. animal products exports according to USDA’s Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook report.
Export forecast for 2017 broiler meat was lowered on recent data that showed lower export levels than expected; third-and fourth-quarter price forecasts were increased due to relatively strong trends. Egg production has remained well above last year, as expected; the third-quarter price was increased on recently strong demand that anticipates the typical fall-seasonal increase. The forecast for 2017 turkey production was reduced due to poor returns and continued softness in demand. Whole hen turkey prices were reduced as prices remain below seasonal averages.
Broiler meat production in June was 3.5 billion pounds, approximately 1.6 percent above last year on a per day basis. Nearly all the growth resulted from more birds slaughtered, as average weights increased only marginally. As of July 1, the layer inventory of broiler-type chickens expanded to its highest level since 2011, reaching 56.4 million. This suggests that growing more birds will continue to support expected production growth.
Broiler exports in June were 528 million pounds, up 5.1 percent from last year. However, growth has been slower than expected, reducing expectations for the remainder of the year. The 2017 export forecast was lowered to 6.8 billion pounds. Part of the recent cooling in export growth may have been relatively strong broiler meat prices. The 2018 export forecast was left unchanged, in part because prices are not expected to remain at the levels of the recent second quarter.
Weekly prices for whole broilers (national composite) declined in July on a normal seasonal pattern but remained a bit stronger than expected; the price was 95 cents per pound for the week ending August 5. This was the highest level for the first week of August since 2014 and was higher than 2013. The price strength supported upward revision of the third-quarter forecast to 95-97 cents per pound. The fourth-quarter forecast was increased slightly to 85-91 cents per pound. Forecasts for 2018 were left unchanged.
