According to USDA’s “Agricultural Projections to 2025” report, poultry production is expected to rise through the projection period, with both broiler meat and turkey meats projected to expand. Production growth is expected to come from both higher numbers of birds and higher average weights at slaughter, the USDA’s report said.
In terms of U.S. per capital meat consumption, USDA said poultry production rose sharply in 2015, although broilers and turkeys followed divergent paths as overall gains were led by increases for broilers, while turkey production fell largely because of the effects of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). Because of restrictions placed by many countries as a result of HPAI outbreaks, U.S. exports were down sharply in 2015 for both broilers and turkeys.
As a result, 2015 U.S. per capital consumption rose for both broilers and turkeys, even with the decline in turkey output. USDA projects that poultry production will increase throughout the next decade with per capita consumer also rising.
USDA projected that prices for broilers, beef cattle, and hogs will decline through most of the next decade as production levels for overall meats rise. Livestock prices begin to level off and increase slightly toward the end of the projection period as production gains for poultry, beef, and pork slow and exports continue to grow.
U.S. broiler exports rise through the projection period, USDA said, with strong near-terms gains reflecting a rebound from import restrictions due to HPAI. Major U.S. export markets include China and Mexico, but U.S. broiler exports also have been increasing to a number of other countries. Longer term gains in these markets reflect economic growth and increasing consumer demand.
International demand for broilers also remains strong because of its lower cost relative to beef and pork. U.S. poultry producers continue to face competition from other major exports, particularly Brazil. Over the projection period, most poultry exports from Thailand and China will continue to be fully cooked products, although Thal export gains also reflect the reopening of trade in uncooked chicken products from that country to the European Union and Japan. Russia is assumed to continue policies to support is domestic industry, so Russia’s poultry imports are projected to continue to fall.
Poultry is the largest U.S. meat export category, and broiler export growth is expected to resume over the next decade with strong near-term gains reflecting a rebound from HPAI-related import restrictions.
For USDA’s complete “Projections to 2025″and charts regarding U.S. poultry and red meat production, consumption, prices, and exports, click oce-2016-1-d
