Broiler production next year is forecast at 38.855 billion pounds, 838 million pounds more or 2.2 percent above this year’s estimated production, according to USDA’s “World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate” (WASDE) report issued this month. Broiler production for 2014 is now estimated at of 38.017 billion pounds, down 71 million pounds from the April estimate, and 1.6 percent above the 37.425 billion pounds of broiler production in 2013. USDA analysts said that they see higher broiler production next year because lower forecast feed prices and record 2014 wholesale broiler prices are encouraging expansion.
Broiler exports for 2015 are forecast to be higher than this year, 7.625 billion pounds, which is 1.2 percent more than the 7.531 billion pounds now expected for 2014. If 2014 exports are 7.531 billion pounds (6 million pounds more than the previous month’s estimate), it would represent a 2.2-percent increase over 2013’s 7.364 billion pounds.
Continued good prices for whole broilers are likely for 2015 with the Board seeing a price range of $1.00-$1.08 national composite weighted average. USDA for 2014 expects $1.01-$1.06 cents per pound compared with $1.00-104 cents per pound in last month’s report. For 2013, the price was 99.7 cents per pound, compared with 86.6 cents per pound in 2012. USDA said that its broiler price forecast for 2014 was increased “as prices remains strong”.
USDA forecasts less beef production in 2015 with 24.386 billion pounds expected, 1.0 percent less than the slightly revised downward estimate of 24.634 billion pounds for 2014. With expectations for this year’s beef production now at 24.634 billion pounds, 14 million pounds less than in the April report, production will be down 4.5 percent from the 25.791 billion pounds in 2013.
Pork production next year could increase to 23.323 billion pounds, 2.9 percent more than the downward revised 22.668 billion pounds now seen for 2014. USDA continued to make downward adjustments to its forecast for pork production for 2014. USDA now expects this year’s pork production to be 22.668 billion pounds, 109 million pounds less than last month. For 2013, pork production was 23.200 billion pounds. The revised pork production outlook puts 2014 output 2.3 percent below of 2013.
Production of total red meat and poultry for 2015 is forecast at 93.286 billion pounds, 1,474,000 pounds or 1.6 percent more than in 2014. Compared with last month’s estimate, USDA trimmed 175 million pounds, putting the estimated combined production for this year at 91.812 billion pounds, 1.2 percent less than the 92.947 billion pounds in 2013.
Analysts said in the report their 2015 forecasts of meat and poultry production is projected to be above 2014 as higher pork and poultry production more than offsets continued declines in beef production. Pork production is expected to increase as producers respond to the Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus (PEDv) by increasing farrowings and feeding hogs to heavier weights. However, a slow recovery in growth in pigs per litter is expected to constrain increases in availability of market hogs in 2015.
Beef production is forecast lower as a declining beef cattle inventory and potential heifer retention during late 2014 and into 2015 is expected to limit cattle placements in late 2014 and into 2015. Despite expectations of heavier slaughter weights, tight supplies of fed cattle for slaughter and reduced cow slaughter will result in lower beef production.
For 2014, the total red meat and poultry production forecast is lowered from last month on lower pork and broiler production. Pork supplies reflect limited availability of hogs due to the impacts of PEDv on pigs per litter. However, the decline in hog numbers may be partly offset by heavier carcass weights. Broiler production is lowered on the pace of slaughter and a slow increase in egg sets and chicks placed. Turkey production is increased slightly based on the current pace of slaughter.
Lower U.S. beef production is expected to push beef exports lower and imports higher in 2015. Pork exports are forecast higher in 2015 and imports are forecast lower as production increases. Broiler and turkey exports are forecast higher on expanded supplies and continued strength in foreign demand. The 2014 beef export forecast is lowered from last month on March export data. Imports are forecast higher on strong processing-grade beef demand and tight supplies of domestic processing beef. Pork exports are unchanged from last month as high March exports are expected to be followed by lower exports later in the year.
For 2015, fed cattle prices are forecast above 2014 as supplies continue to tighten and demand for beef remains strong. Hog prices are forecast lower than 2014 as hog supplies increase. However, broiler and turkey prices are forecast higher despite increased production as demand remains firm in the face of relatively tight red meat supplies. For 2014, the fed cattle price forecast is lowered from last month as prices for mid-2014 are reduced. Hog prices are up from last month on tight supplies.
