Broiler production this year continues to be forecast at 38.484 billion pounds, which will be 3.0 percent more than the slightly revised downward production estimated for 2013, according to this month’s edition of the “World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate” (WASDE) report from USDA. If broiler production is 37.347 billion pounds in 2013, it would be 1.9 percent above the 36.643 billion pounds of broiler production in 2012.
Broiler exports for 2014 are forecast to remain unchanged from USDA’s September, November, and December reports (no October report was released), while the 2013 estimate was raised by 25 million pounds to 7.416 billion pounds. If 2014 exports are 7.550 billion pounds, it would represent a 1.8-percent increase over 2013 and, if 2013 exports are 7.416 billion pounds, it would be 2.0 percent over the 7.274 billion pounds in 2012.
USDA adjusted its price outlook for broilers, noting that demand is “firm, supported by tight supplies of beef.” Analysts expect the wholesale broiler price, national composite weighted average, to be 92-99 cents per pound for 2014, compared with 91-98 cents per pound in last month’s report. For 2013, the price forecast is now 99.7 cents per pound, compared with 99.4 cents per pound in the previous report. In 2012, the comparable broiler price was 86.6 cents per pound.
USDA raised its beef production forecasts for both 2013 and 2014. For 2014, analysts now expect 25.800 billion pounds, 115 million pounds more than the December forecast and 5.4 percent more than 24.403 billion pounds now estimated for 2013. In 2012, 25.996 billion pounds of beef were produced.
Unlike the beef outlook, USDA decreased slightly its 2013 and 2014 pork production forecasts. USDA now expects 2013 pork production to be 23.212 billion pounds, 25 million pounds less than last month. For 2014, analysts now see 23.597 billion pounds, 325 million pounds less than in the December report and 1.7 percent above the revised 2013 production estimate.
Production of total red meat and poultry for 2014 is now put at 93.181 billion pounds, 230 million pounds less than the previous report, and 0.3 percent above the now expected 92.895 billion pounds for 2013. If 2013’s combined production is 92.895 billion pounds, it would be 0.3 percent above the 92.601 billion pounds in 2012.
Commenting on the meat and poultry situation, USDA explained that the forecast for 2014 for combined meat and poultry is reduced as lower pork and turkey production more than offset an increased beef production forecast. The “Quarterly Hogs and Pigs” report, released on December 27, indicated that the September-November pigs crop was fractionally below a year earlier, which will constrain supplies of slaughter hogs in early 2014. Although producers intend to farrow more sows in the first half of 2014, the impacts of the Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus (PEDv) will likely slow growth in pigs per litter and keep supplies of market hogs relatively tight during 2014. Beef production was raised for 2014 as higher-than-expected placements in the later part of 2013 and expected availability or winter pasture support increased cattle marketing and slaughter during the year.
