Broiler production next year continues to be forecast at 38.484 billion pounds, which will be 3.0 more than the slightly revised downward production estimated for 2013, according to the December edition of the “World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate” (WASDE) report from USDA.

If broiler production is 37.362 billion pounds this year, it would be 2.0 percent above the 36.643 billion pounds of broiler production in 2012. USDA analysts said production for 2013 was adjusted downward to reflect on-going slaughter data.

Broiler exports for 2014 are forecast to remain unchanged from USDA’s September and November reports (no October report was released), while the 2013 estimate was trimmed by 4 million pounds to 7.391 billion pounds. If 2014 exports are 7.550 billion pounds, this would represent a 2.2-percent increase over this year and, if 2013 exports are 7.391 billion, they would be 1.6 percent over the 7.274 billion pounds in 2012.

Given the likely “moderate” increase in broiler production, USDA adjusted its price outlook for broilers and cited “firm” demand for broiler meat with support also coming from expected tight supplies of beef next year. Analysts continue to expect the wholesale broiler price, national composite weighted average, to be 91-98 cents per pound, for 2014, compared with 89-97 cents per pound in last month’s report. For 2013, the price forecast is now 99.4 cents per pound, compared with 99.0 cents per pound in the previous report. In 2012, the comparable broiler price was 86.6 cents per pound.

USDA raised slightly its beef production forecasts for both 2013 and 2014. For 2014, analysts now expect 24.288 billion pounds, 115 million pounds more than the November forecast and 5.7 percent less than 25.760 billion pounds now estimated for 2013. In 2012, 25.996 billion pounds of beef were produced.

Similar to the beef outlook, USDA also raised slightly its 2013 and 2014 pork production forecasts. USDA now expects 2013 pork production to be 23.237 billion pounds, 70 million pounds more than last month and essentially unchanged from the 23.270 billion pounds in 2012. For 2014, analysts see 23.922 billion pounds, 145 million pounds more than in the November report and 2.9 percent above the revised 2013 production estimate.

Production of total red meat and poultry for 2014 is now put at 93.411 billion pounds, 207 million pounds more than the previous report, and 0.5 percent above the now expected 92.917 billion pounds for 2013. If this year’s combined production is 92.917 billion pounds, it would be 0.3 percent above the 92.601 billion pounds in 2012.

USDA said U.S. corn consumption will be stronger than expected into next year as ethanol and foreign consumers have increased demand for the crop, as users take advantage of more favorable prices. USDA increased its demand estimate for corn used to produce ethanol by 50 million bushels to 4.950 billion, reflecting a strong uptick in production of the corn-based fuel since mid-October. Corn prices are seen averaging $4.40  per bushel through August of next year compared to $6.89 per bushel in the prior marketing year.

The increase in ethanol output, coupled with higher foreign demand for corn, led USDA to lower stockpiles at the end of next August to 1.79 billion, a decline of 95 million bushels from its estimate in early November. Even though USDA lowered its end stock estimate, it would still be the largest carryover in eight years.

Soybean ending stocks for 2013-14 were cut by 20 million bushels to 150 million bushels, largely the result of an increase in exports from last month by 25 million bushels. USDA raised its average farm price for soybeans to $12.50 per bushel in 2013-14 from $12.15 per bushel last month.