USDA slightly raised its estimates for broiler production and exports for this year, according to the “World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates” report issued this week from the department’s World Agricultural Outlook Board. USDA now expects broiler production for 2013 to be 37.364 billion pounds, 25 million pounds more than last month’s estimate and 2.0 percent more than the 36.643 billion pounds in 2012.
USDA left unchanged from last month its broiler production forecast for 2014 at 38.434 billion pounds, 2.9 percent above this year. Broiler exports for 2013 are now seen at 7.359 billion pounds, are 100 million pounds above the May estimate and 1.1 percent over the 2012 exports of 7.281 billion pounds. Next year’s exports are unchanged at 7.550 billion pounds, up 2.6 percent from this year.
USDA again this month increased its forecast for the annual 12-city wholesale average price for whole broilers for 2013. This year’s wholesale price will likely be between 102-105 cents per pound, compared with last month’s estimate of 100-104 cents per pound, a 2-cent increase on the lower end of the price range and a 1-cent increase on the high end of the range. For 2014, USDA expects a whole broiler price of 88-96 cents per pound, unchanged from its May forecast and about 11 percent less than this year.
USDA’s beef production forecast for 2014 was left unchanged at 24.188 billion pounds, 5.2 percent less than the upward revised estimate of 25.520 billion pounds for 2013. Estimated beef production for 2013 was increased 330 million pounds above last month’s estimate and would be 1.8 percent less than the 25.996 billion pounds produced in 2012. Unlike its estimates for broiler and beef production, USDA’s estimate for pork production for 2013 was trimmed. Pork production this year is estimated at 24.444 billion pounds, 0.7 percent more than the 23.270 billion pounds for 2012. Pork production for 2012 was 23.270 billion pounds.
Since none of the individual meat production forecasts for next year were changed in this month’s report, total red meat and poultry production for 2014 continues to be forecast at 93.646 billion pounds, 0.7 percent above the revised upward estimate of 93.002 billion pounds now expected for 2013. Combined meat and poultry production for this year (93.002 billion pounds) is 298 million pounds more than the May estimate but 0.4 percent higher than the 92.601 billion pounds in 2012.
USDA’s Outlook Board said its forecast for broiler production for 2013 was raised to reflect hatchery data that will result in more third quarter broiler production. Poor forage conditions have caused relatively large placements of cattle in feedlots during first-half 2013 and cow slaughter continues to remain high. This situation will result in more beef production than USDA previously anticipated. Lower estimated pork production this year stems from the more modest pace of hog slaughter and slightly lighter expected carcass weights.
