USDA’s first broiler production forecast for 2014 is 38.434 billion pounds, 2.9 percent more than the revised downward estimate of 37.339 billion pounds for 2013, according to the “World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates” report issued today from the World Agricultural Outlook Board. USDA’s broiler production estimate for 2013 at 37.339 billion pounds is 165 million pounds less than last month’s estimate and 1.9 percent more than the 36.643 billion pounds in 2012.

USDA lowered its broiler production forecast 165 million pounds for this year because hatchery and chick placement data are signaling more modest expansion plans. USDA is estimating broiler exports for 2014 to be 7.550 billion pounds, 4.0 percent over expected 2013 exports of 7.259 billion pounds. This year’s exports may be 0.3 percent lower than in 2012 when exports were 7.281 billion pounds.

USDA increased its forecast for the annual 12-city wholesale average price for whole broilers for 2013. This year’s wholesale price will likely be between 100-104 cents per pound, compared with last month’s estimate of 98-103 cents per pound, a 2-cent increase on the lower end of the price range and a  1-cent increase on the high end. For 2014, USDA expects a whole broiler price of 88-96 cents per pound somewhat below the likely price for 2013.

Beef production for 2014 is forecast to decrease from this year’s level. For 2014, beef production is likely to be 24.188 billion pounds, 4.0 percent less than the upward revised estimate of 25.190 billion pounds for 2013. Beef production in 2013 is 806 million pounds or 3.1 percent less than in 2012. USDA forecasts that pork production for 2014 will be 24.042 billion pounds, 2.3 percent more than the slightly trimmed estimate for 2013 of 23.499 billion pounds. Pork production for 2012 was 23.270 billion pounds.

Total red meat and poultry production for 2014 is forecast at 93.646 billion pounds, 1.0 percent above the 92.704 billion pounds now expected for 2013. Combined meat and poultry production for this year (92.704 billion pounds) is 125 million pounds less than the April estimate but 1.1 percent higher than the 92.601 billion pounds for 2012.

The outlook board explained its forecast for less beef production in 2013 reflects tighter cattle supplies and potential heifer retention during late 2013 and into 2014. Higher pork production will result from better feed cost incentives that will expand farrowing and increase carcass weights.