China’s chicken meat production for 2013 is estimated to increase 2.6 percent over 2012 and will be 42 percent higher than 2003, according to this week’s “International Egg and Poultry Review” from the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS).  Estimated production was lowered by 50,000 metric tons earlier this year in response to consumers’ negative reaction to media reports of chemical residues found in domestic chicken products at fast food restaurants.

China’s 2013 chicken meat import estimate was raised from previous estimates as favorable prices for U.S. poultry products increased Chinese processor import demand. The U.S. export price in December 2012 was $1,085 per ton, which was 55 percent lower than Brazil’s price of $2,381 per ton. Total chicken meat imports for 2013 are estimated to be 6.3 percent above 2012, but 40 percent below 2003.

U.S. January-February 2013 chicken meat exports to China were 95 percent higher than the same timeframe in 2012 and considerably higher than 2002. U.S. chicken meat exports in 2012 to China were 40 percent higher than 2011 and 34 percent above 2002.

U.S. frozen chicken paws and feet exports to China are included in the “other poultry meat” category, not the “chicken meat” category. Chicken paws and feet were the number one U.S. poultry item exported to China in 2012. For 2012 they were about 99 percent of U.S. “other poultry” exports and, even with the large U.S. chicken meat export increases, are 53 percent higher than chicken meat. China was the number eight U.S. chicken meat destination and the number two U.S. “other poultry” meat export destination.

Market reaction to the detection of avian influenza H7N9 in Shanghai and Anhui Province has resulted in consumer prices falling 5 percent over the recent ten week time period. Animal protein prices, however, were trending lower before the crisis began. Live bird prices have also dropped markedly, but there are reports that prices now appear to be stabilizing. Day old chick prices have  declined 80 percent in the last two weeks. As of April 15, 2013 an estimated 16.7 billion yuan (US $2.7 billion) the China poultry industry has lost in sales of chicks, live chickens and chicken products. This amount does not include turkey meat and egg products.

To prepare the report, AMS said its sources were Rabobank International, Foreign Agricultural Service GAIN Report 13014, U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics from the Foreign Agricultural Service, World Health Organization,  ThePoultrySite, and various other news sources.