“Despite challenges” world broiler production this year is expected to expand, albeit at a more modest pace than previously forecasted, according to the Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade report issued this week by the Department’s Foreign Agricultural Service.  Global broiler production this year is now expected by USDA to increase to 82,193,000 metric tons, 881,000 tons less than its previous forecast of October 2011 but 2.2 percent more than the 80,420,000 tons in 2011.  Analysts attributed their reduced outlook to the “consequence of higher feed and operating costs”, the report noted.

USDA listed the following key changes to the revised outlook for broiler production.  These are:

  • Indian broiler production increased by 450,000 tons to a record 3.2 million tons. Greater vertical integration and robust demand fueled by an expanding middle-class and changing tastes and preferences support increasing production.
  • Argentinian production upped by 75,000 tons to a record 1.9 million tons on stronger domestic and foreign demand, despite termination of government feed subsidies.
  • Brazilian production reduced by 352,000 tons to 13.3 million tons as a result of higher feed costs and falling demand due to an overvalued currency and sanitary restrictions by trading partners.
  • U.S. broiler marketings lowered by 202,000 tons to 16.4 million tons as relatively higher feed costs will dampen expansion despite rising broiler meat prices.
  • Chinese production trimmed to 13.7 million tons. Greater pork supplies and competitive prices are generating cutbacks in poultry production due to concerns of oversupply and weakening prices.
  • EU broiler output remains virtually unchanged at 9.6 million tons as higher feed costs and regional economic uncertainty continue to discourage expansion.

Broiler production for major countries from 2007 to forecast 2012 is as follows:

Broiler Meat Selected Countries Summary
1,000 Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* 2012**
Production
  China 11,840 12,100 12,550 13,200 13,800 13,730
  Brazil 11,033 11,023 12,312 12,863 13,602 13,250
  EU-27 8,594 8,756 9,202 9,420 9,630 9,600
  India 2,490 2,550 2,650 2,900 2,750 3,200
  Mexico 2,853 2,781 2,822 2,900 2,892 2,925
  Russia 1,680 2,060 2,310 2,575 2,750 2,725
  Argentina 1,435 1,500 1,680 1,770 1,775 1,850
  Turkey 1,170 1,250 1,430 1,614 1,650 1,687
  Indonesia 1,350 1,409 1,465 1,515 1,540 1,540
  Thailand 1,170 1,200 1,280 1,350 1,420 1,420
  Others 12,687 13,003 13,465 13,619 14,662 13,865
     Total Foreign 56,302 57,632 61,166 63,726 66,471 65,792
     United States 16,561 15,935 16,563 16,694 16,603 16,401
     Total 72,863 73,567 77,729 80,420 83,074 82,193
* October 2011 forecast **April 2012 forecast

Despite reducing its forecast for world broiler production for 2012, the forecast for global broiler exports was left virtually unchanged from the October 2011 report.  An expected increase in U.S. broiler exports offsets a likely decrease in Brazilian exports.  This week’s report noted the following revisions compared with the FAS report of October 2011.  These are:

  • U.S. broiler exports increased by 125,000 tons to nearly 3.2 million tons. Global economic growth and a relatively weak dollar is expected to support increases in exports to a wide number of countries. Also, the upward revision in the Russian TRQ quantity for poultry compared to the October forecast also supports greater exports.
  • Brazilian exports lowered 150,000 tons to 3.3 million tons based on less competitive prices resulting from an appreciating currency. Russian delisting of eligible plants and South African anti-dumping duties also continue to depress Brazilian shipments.
  • Turkey’s broiler exports are seen higher by 37,000 tons to 230,000 tons due to mounting demand from the Middle East.

Broiler exports for major countries for 2007 to forecast 2012 are as follows:

Broiler Meat Selected Countries Summary
1,000 Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* 2012**
Total Exports
  Brazil 3,242 2,992 3,181 3,219 3,465 3,315
  EU-27 727 765 929 1,036 1,120 1,060
  Thailand 383 379 432 467 500 500
  China 285 291 379 423 445 445
  Argentina 164 178 214 210 225 250
  Turkey 42 86 110 206 193 230
  Canada 152 147 147 155 155 155
  Chile 63 87 79 90 117 100
  Kuwait 7 21 38 70 15 80
  Ukraine 70 70 71 70 70 70
  Others 125 163 199 250 252 274
     Total Foreign 5,260 5,179 5,779 6,196 6,557 6,479
     United States 3,157 3,093 3,069 3,171 3,039 3,164
     Total 8,417 8,272 8,848 9,367 9,596 9,643
Note: Chicken paws are excluded                                                                 * October 2011 forecast ** April 2012 forecast

The FAS report is available at http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/livestock_poultry.pdf.