Broiler consumption in China next year is forecast to be 10 kilograms per person on average, unchanged from this year, but up one kilogram from 2010, according to the latest poultry GAIN report from the Beijing office of USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS).Total broiler consumption would likely reach 13.555 million metric tons in 2010.  Both per capita and total consumption exclude “claws” (feet-paws), FAS noted.

China’s broiler meat imports in 2012 are forecast by FAS to decline 13 percent to 200,000 tons (not including chicken “claws”), following an estimated 20-percent decline this year.  The decline is mainly attributed to the anti-dumping and countervailing duties (AD/CVD) on U.S. broiler product exports to China.

Chicken “claw” imports will continue to dominate China’s total broiler product imports in both 2011 and 2012 accounting for over two-thirds of China’s total broiler product imports.   “Claw” imports in 2011 are forecast at nearly 300,000 tons, a 42-percent decline from 2010, once again as a result of the anti-dumping and countervailing measures against the U.S. exports to China.

Chinese broiler meat imports (not including chicken “claws”) in 2012 from the United States are forecast to drop 20 percent to estimated 24,000 tons following an expected  51-percent decline in 2011.  Chicken “claw” imports from the United States are forecast to decline 15 percent to 21,500 tons following a 75-percent decline estimated for 2011.  The report said that U.S. product including broiler meat and “claws” in 2009 accounted for 85 percent of China’s total broiler product imports.  Currently, the U.S. share is only 10 percent.  Limited volumes of U.S. “claw” shipments will continue because of the AD and CVD duties and in spite of strong market prices in China.

Higher shipments from South America cannot completely offset sharply lower imports from the United States because of capacity limitations on South American product.  In addition, traders are reporting that quality is sometimes uneven on South American product compared to other suppliers.  With tighter import supplies due to the AD/CVD duties against U.S. exports to China, broiler import prices have risen markedly, reaching $2,219 tons in July 2011, up almost 30 percent from the same month in 2010.

The GAIN report is available from FAS’s Web site.