Broiler production next year is expected to be 37.732 billion pounds, 1.9 percent ahead of the 37.013 billion pounds estimated for 2011, according to USDA’s “World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates” report from the World Agricultural Outlook Board this week. Improved net returns next year following the expected cutback in broiler production during the latter part of 2011 will stimulate the stepped-up output, analysts explained. For 2011 broiler production is now seen to be 7 million pounds less than last month’s estimate and will be 1.4 percent more than the 36.516 billion pounds in 2010.
Beef production for 2012 is forecast at 25.190 billion pounds, 4.3 percent less than the 26.331 billion pounds now estimated for 2011. Board analysts raised this month’s beef production estimate by 134 million pounds compared with the April estimate. The pool of cattle available for placement in feedlots during 2012 will be reduced as cattle inventories diminish. If producers decide to begin rebuilding herds for breeding by retaining heifers from the 2011 calf crop, placements will be further constrained in 2012, USDA said.
Unlike beef, pork production is likely to gradually increase in 2012 as the number of pigs per litter increases and farrowings increase modestly. USDA expects a 1.4-percent increase in next year’s pork production with 22.969 billion pounds compared with 22.644 billion pounds this year. USDA added 28 million pounds to its 2011 pork production estimate this month compared with its April report. As a result, pork production this year will likely be 0.8 percent more than the 22.456 billion pounds in 2010.
Combined red meat and poultry production in 2012 is forecast to be 92.440 billion pounds, essentially unchanged from the revised estimate of 92.434 billion pounds for 2011. This year’s combined red meat and poultry production estimate would be 0.7 percent above the 91.772 billion pounds in 2010.
Broiler exports next year could reach 6.700 billion pounds, 4.7 percent above the 6.400 billion pounds estimated for 2011. Last month, the board put 2011 broiler exports at 6.550 billion pounds but reduced its estimate by 150 million pounds to 6.400 billion pounds. In 2010, broiler exports totaled 6.773 billion pounds. Estimated exports for this year were lowered as slower-than-expected sales to several markets were seen by USDA. A more diverse array of markets for broilers next year will lead to the increase in exports, the report stated. USDA’s 12-city wholesale price for broilers for 2011 was left unchanged from last month’s report and continues at 82-86 cents per pounds. Next year’s comparable broiler price could increase and be in the range of 83-89 cents per pound.
